Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a0eb0778c86fe7e076eb4f863567c1516b85773004ac5e6a5cbcb62b90ef79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 1,706$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Yes | 75c | 918.9$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Yes | 73c | 474.76$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed No | 45c | 467.96$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 379.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…a14abacked Yes | 50c | 328.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 38c | 260.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed No | 47c | 193.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 73c | 155.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 33c | 141.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 43c | 90.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…42d1backed Yes | 59c | 76.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 50c | 69.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 68c | 49.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…91e5backed No | 34c | 43.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed No | 38c | 39.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed No | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked No | 51c | 34.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 65c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.