Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc728f2cf79abc74f3a9f012019f30c0b437d83db33d913eb483472d8d99c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,493$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.75 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 32c | 1,830$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Over | 41c | 1,617$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 45c | 1,551$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 1,013$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.79 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 761.36$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.97 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 749.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.86 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 57c | 499.92$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.97 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 45c | 446.97$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…6ca6backed Over | 36c | 432.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 253.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed Under | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 55c | 203.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Under | 39c | 172.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Under | 50c | 168.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 45c | 157.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 134.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 106.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 48c | 80.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Under | 77c | 73.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 64.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…0da5backed Under | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 52c | 56.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 41c | 48.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 59c | 47.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 54c | 44.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 50c | 42.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 60c | 40.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 52c | 38.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Under | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 67c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.