NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Italy vs. Norway
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7264bb4bb0a2396f0ab5298ba75fb7fab27b04d044801a5cdd3a70c2bdde5736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norwayof Italy, Norway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Italy | 23c | 1,740$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Italy | 19c | 1,040$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…2ebdbacked Norway | 77c | 726.05$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Italy | 18c | 680.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…a5cfbacked Norway | 77c | 532.62$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…ecc4backed Norway | 77c | 520.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Italy | 23c | 435.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Italy | 25c | 378.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy | 11c | 314.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Italy | 21c | 290.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Italy | 5c | 281.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Italy | 22c | 224.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Norway | 80c | 222.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Italy | 24c | 209.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Italy | 22c | 195$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Norway | 79c | 188.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Italy | 19c | 152.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Italy | 21c | 151.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Norway | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Italy | 19c | 131.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Norway | 77c | 130.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Norway | 79c | 127.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…05f9backed Norway | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Italy | 22c | 109.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…6483backed Norway | 79c | 94.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Italy | 25c | 84.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…75dcbacked Norway | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Norway | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…73d3backed Norway | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…3db8backed Italy | 24c | 40.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Norway | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Norway | 76c | 32.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Norway | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Norway | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…be6fbacked Norway | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Norway | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…ba25backed Norway | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1a…f1f7backed Norway | 77c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Norway | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…828dbacked Norway | 80c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…ae38backed Norway | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.