Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d8810825f7252c191d53fc055f866306ce191a55759d7e7a6777df0d5ecb0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 33c | 420.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 71c | 358.86$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 66c | 342.59$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 68c | 304.49$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 19c | 252.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 39c | 211.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 41c | 142.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed No | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 25c | 121.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 30c | 103.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 97.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 28c | 96.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 68c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed Yes | 73c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…ece8backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78c…ca1ebacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 74c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.