NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Germany vs. Latvia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00113a9816840adaf0f2d28832e2baf70db09db248a89438a78a971caea91b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Latviaof Germany, Latvia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3d…36b6backed Germany | 19c | 4,091$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Latvia | 75c | 2,987$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.97 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Latvia | 32c | 2,800$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.44 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Latvia | 78c | 2,013$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.16 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Germany | 64c | 1,987$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Latvia | 59c | 1,299$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.27 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Latvia | 52c | 769.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.7 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Germany | 68c | 682.86$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.34 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…1d03backed Latvia | 47c | 657.02$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Latvia | 66c | 622.18$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Latvia | 44c | 535.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.73 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Germany | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Germany | 52c | 463.6$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Germany | 66c | 458.49$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.61 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Germany | 22c | 442.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Germany | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ef…6f9fbacked Germany | 16c | 321.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…ecc4backed Germany | 71c | 303.15$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Germany | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Germany | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0817backed Latvia | 34c | 294.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Germany | 61c | 245.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Latvia | 19c | 244.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.77 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Latvia | 29c | 226.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Germany | 27c | 224.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Latvia | 52c | 210$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Germany | 67c | 204.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Germany | 51c | 194.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…b61abacked Latvia | 33c | 152.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Latvia | 33c | 148.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…ba85backed Germany | 52c | 140.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a663backed Germany | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Latvia | 67c | 110.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Latvia | 71c | 100.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ae…1e53backed Germany | 61c | 98.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…6710backed Germany | 68c | 81.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…9703backed Latvia | 69c | 79.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Germany | 68c | 72.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…875ebacked Germany | 68c | 70.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…0880backed Germany | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Germany | 73c | 70.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…d312backed Latvia | 34c | 59.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 38cpaid | +81%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…f5f4backed Latvia | 34c | 57.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…f3adbacked Latvia | 34c | 53.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…0a6fbacked Latvia | 31c | 48.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Germany | 65c | 48.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6abb…a1fcbacked Latvia | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Germany | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Germany | 68c | 43.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Latvia | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…a6d7backed Latvia | 31c | 38.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Germany | 68c | 32.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…c150backed Latvia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Germany | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Latvia | 78c | 26.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Germany | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Germany | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Germany | 68c | 18.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Germany | 73c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.