Stocks · resolved market
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a524de74c20adc51b5d73ff631fb74cea5e8980a673573e003913315c9c7b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 23c | 6,863$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed No | 29c | 3,393$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 32c | 1,652$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.31 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 40c | 1,418$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 1,163$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.08 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 6c | 1,058$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.01 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 790.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +152%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed No | 25c | 737.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…57ebbacked No | 48c | 629.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf59…43dfbacked No | 8c | 627.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 32c | 516.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.4 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…d4d6backed No | 50c | 399.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 4c | 397.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +780.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 77c | 296.82$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed No | 23c | 177.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +330.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 54c | 151$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…32bcbacked No | 39c | 128.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…716bbacked No | 59c | 110.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 86.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 15c | 85.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e4…9b0bbacked No | 19c | 83.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed No | 22c | 72.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +212%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 15c | 70.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…8c92backed No | 44c | 68.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 17c | 66.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 37c | 65.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed No | 32c | 37.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 62c | 35.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?this page
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?Yes won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $150 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $160 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $170 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $180 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $190 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.