Stocks · resolved market
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd41ab1cf264cee2cf964efb587d77f454e181ef8d1ba0b9253d5c4fe1278936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 46c | 1,790$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 49c | 906.61$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…51dfbacked No | 61c | 349.06$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 13c | 270.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 247.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 45c | 209.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 44c | 166.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 47c | 136.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes | 53c | 95.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 25c | 51.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?this page
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?Yes won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $150 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $160 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $170 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $180 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $190 end of July?No won
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.