Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf781e07e637b67c2ab647a8c9e6e2344669f7bd9a87dcb5b40deb056443f35b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Insomniaof Riddle, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65c1…2988backed Insomnia | 38c | 20,134$7,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,403.1 | 255 | 54.9%140 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked Riddle | 66c | 6,000$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Riddle | 60c | 5,952$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcadf…1f60backed Riddle | 67c | 5,571$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…b465backed Riddle | 67c | 1,876$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.74 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Riddle | 31c | 1,626$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.06 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…ea01backed Insomnia | 43c | 726.59$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Insomnia | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…ffd8backed Insomnia | 33c | 599.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Riddle | 67c | 558.79$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Riddle | 67c | 557.94$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.82 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d922backed Insomnia | 33c | 515.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Insomnia | 33c | 499.97$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.98 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…b8b9backed Insomnia | 35c | 415$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Riddle | 67c | 400.96$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.64 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Riddle | 53c | 391.63$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Riddle | 67c | 377.47$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.9 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Insomnia | 20c | 326.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.56 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…b261backed Insomnia | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Riddle | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Riddle | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Insomnia | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Riddle | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…82c9backed Riddle | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…fb8dbacked Insomnia | 33c | 267.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Insomnia | 34c | 257.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.66 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Insomnia | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Insomnia | 42c | 231.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Riddle | 58c | 226.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Insomnia | 45c | 221.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…09e3backed Insomnia | 50c | 206.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Insomnia | 31c | 185$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…a80dbacked Riddle | 71c | 179.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…9dfebacked Riddle | 68c | 154.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Riddle | 68c | 142.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…df21backed Insomnia | 37c | 136$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Riddle | 66c | 124.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…571ebacked Insomnia | 33c | 121.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked Insomnia | 29c | 107.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Riddle | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…7a8ebacked Riddle | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…e804backed Insomnia | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Insomnia | 29c | 93.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…7805backed Insomnia | 32c | 78.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Insomnia | 34c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Riddle | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Riddle | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…a140backed Insomnia | 33c | 64.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Insomnia | 58c | 63.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Insomnia | 32c | 63.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Insomnia | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Riddle | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Riddle | 42c | 55.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Riddle | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 601 | 54.2%326 W · 275 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…028abacked Insomnia | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Insomnia | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Insomnia | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…fc16backed Insomnia | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Insomnia | 33c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Insomnia | 34c | 33.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Riddle | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed Insomnia | 37c | 30.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Insomnia | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Insomnia | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…493abacked Riddle | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Riddle | 68c | 28.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…2c23backed Insomnia | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 113 | 67.3%76 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Insomnia | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 345 | 71%245 W · 100 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…be31backed Riddle | 67c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…0eadbacked Riddle | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stagethis page
- Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia - Map 1 WinnerInsomnia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.