Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bd56b4e8ce56d35047f50bc79075abe6e99bc24df0e0cc84a965e01ad411855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 731.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 360 | 33.3%120 W · 240 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 25c | 326.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 18c | 230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 186.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +19.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 80c | 142$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 30c | 125.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 118.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 281 | 34.2%96 W · 185 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 118.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 117.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 368 | 22%81 W · 287 L | -27.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 480 | 36.3%174 W · 306 L | -37.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 45c | 102.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 29c | 78.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 52c | 77.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…d5c5backed Yes | 17c | 70.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 51c | 52.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 70c | 38.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…ed10backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 69c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 22.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 56c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?this page
- Will Robert Franklin be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.