Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Robert Franklin be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e970da0466afa11887917fe24efa0e20226b338486c69217f25bf87920157e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 21c | 1,734$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.3 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 54c | 452$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 48c | 254.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 4c | 234.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 43c | 214.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 33c | 174$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…d5c5backed Yes | 75c | 143$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 118.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 102.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 11c | 99.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 51c | 74.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 34c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 65c | 26.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 25.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…6f29backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39cd…1650backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Franklin be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?this page
- Will James Taylor be the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.