Movies · resolved market
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003a8810573bc5d06be6c5f13ac591166acf30a6939e038ef868b42d053a9ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 17c | 9,357$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.94 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 21c | 6,565$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.58 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 39c | 5,173$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.59 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 29c | 4,412$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.89 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 21c | 3,302$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.93 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 64c | 2,345$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.54 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 2,174$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 17c | 2,074$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.98 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,821$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 1,621$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.64 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 20c | 1,617$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 1,299$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.09 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 856$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 674.96$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.27 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 587.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 554.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 25c | 499.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 11c | 477.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 464$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 4c | 457.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 38c | 430$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 25c | 387.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 8c | 360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 16c | 293.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 42c | 259.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 66c | 233$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 20c | 209$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 208.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 75c | 201.13$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 29c | 181.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 165$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 12c | 163.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 144.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…fbe2backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 38c | 90.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 33c | 78.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…a792backed Yes | 65c | 77.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 67.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 61.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 58.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 43c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…6a5dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…2a82backed Yes | 74c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "72 Hours" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.