TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Tempoof Seattle Storm, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff12…09f9backed Toronto Tempo79c9,523$7,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.51887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Storm22c7,948$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.3422748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Toronto Tempo65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7501573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+45.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo65c4,932$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.1799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Seattle Storm35c4,536$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.6229654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Seattle Storm0c4,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52a1…7833backed Toronto Tempo65c2,780$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm16c2,576$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.1134726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed Seattle Storm9c2,398$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.621250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Tempo67c2,376$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.0423245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm32c2,352$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.221,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Seattle Storm33c2,193$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.3110151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm28c1,974$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.421,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo66c1,950$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.4785158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Tempo66c1,880$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.0640550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Seattle Storm4c1,860$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.37557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Toronto Tempo69c1,701$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.0419458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo67c1,598$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.5832049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm33c1,459$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.8719428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d38…71efbacked Seattle Storm3c1,383$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dda…df45backed Seattle Storm31c1,314$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Toronto Tempo53c1,221$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.16956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Seattle Storm32c1,198$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.064652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Toronto Tempo61c1,000$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8eb6…8e13backed Seattle Storm35c986.72$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Seattle Storm36c980$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.84847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4f…f2a1backed Seattle Storm34c930$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked Toronto Tempo56c900$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Toronto Tempo74c839.07$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Seattle Storm42c663.81$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Seattle Storm38c645.29$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.775149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Storm3c620$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8414936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Seattle Storm40c550.25$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Toronto Tempo68c549.72$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.911266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Seattle Storm35c527.14$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6531448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Toronto Tempo66c493.53$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.832743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Seattle Storm33c455.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.488733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Storm26c442.37$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2818844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Seattle Storm35c429$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Toronto Tempo78c364.68$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Tempo64c360.19$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6710144.6%45 W · 56 L-13.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Seattle Storm28c359.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc4…a439backed Toronto Tempo67c350$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.52853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Tempo66c309$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0636154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Toronto Tempo70c285.3$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.856237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Toronto Tempo67c280.26$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7813844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Toronto Tempo76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Toronto Tempo66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…988dbacked Seattle Storm28c242.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca3…f975backed Seattle Storm36c228.19$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Toronto Tempo68c227.91$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.939549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Toronto Tempo71c224.31$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.051190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick64cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Seattle Storm46c222.78$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.481631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Storm32c214.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1831847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…9c28backed Toronto Tempo66c204.82$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Seattle Storm33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6621337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb009…7a8ebacked Seattle Storm6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc668…0a90backed Seattle Storm33c199.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.762347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Seattle Storm33c195.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.983941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Tempo59c193.38$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0326247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Toronto Tempo67c192.55$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.362927.6%8 W · 21 L-7.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Seattle Storm28c181.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5316745.5%76 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm41c175$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7526147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Storm28c174.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7619646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm32c172.84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4519031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm34c170.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9716633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Toronto Tempo57c164.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.975660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Seattle Storm33c155.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.471942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Seattle Storm33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Seattle Storm35c151$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.644831.3%15 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Toronto Tempo67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Tempo66c140.83$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8814346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dee…5d00backed Toronto Tempo62c129.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.442050%10 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Storm27c129$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2637650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Seattle Storm34c124.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.339146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Tempo67c123.47$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0330347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Toronto Tempo62c120.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3636750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Seattle Storm36c118.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8511841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Seattle Storm38c118.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1318746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Toronto Tempo60c114.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.054351.2%22 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Seattle Storm33c107.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.456643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Toronto Tempo77c106$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7721446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Toronto Tempo67c105.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.972958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Seattle Storm35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Seattle Storm32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c4…28f7backed Toronto Tempo66c98.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Seattle Storm41c91.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf808…742dbacked Seattle Storm33c77.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.712634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Toronto Tempo67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.638953.9%48 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Toronto Tempo66c70.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1261042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Seattle Storm28c70.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.436127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc131…1a8abacked Seattle Storm34c62.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1810335.9%37 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Toronto Tempo64c61.36$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.942152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Toronto Tempo74c60.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Toronto Tempo77c55.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…338abacked Toronto Tempo68c54.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Seattle Storm30c52.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.985431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Seattle Storm33c45.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.027045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Seattle Storm34c44.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.273677.8%28 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Toronto Tempo74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.542373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.