UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e14689c8eec19219b78cf156ab6881e682b270427c1319abcb0c4a2a2f2e2e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2278…127abacked No | 48c | 1,347$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 53c | 1,103$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.47 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 46c | 1,025$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.45 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 720.91$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…4b17backed Yes | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 54c | 416.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 46c | 340.91$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 240.96$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 61c | 230.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 52c | 204.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…f003backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…3363backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…881dbacked Yes | 53c | 182.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 42c | 135.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 57c | 109.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 36c | 104.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 44c | 94.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 44c | 82.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed No | 43c | 75.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 32c | 74.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…c9c0backed Yes | 52c | 38.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 53c | 32.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 48c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)Gregory Rodrigues won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.