UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfbed367ad14327329bbd355bf70bfc4808be9f4f8bae8f7cb68f6e8b8e7195f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 65c | 1,907$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.94 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 35c | 1,787$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.64 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…bdb0backed Over | 35c | 1,181$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 65c | 1,077$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 36c | 555$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 24c | 433.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 36c | 248$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…c648backed Over | 36c | 132.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Over | 36c | 103$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…90e9backed Under | 65c | 96.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f4…1ac8backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…f56fbacked Over | 65c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)Gregory Rodrigues won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.