UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa855e44046f388af045c5b415dd7fb8b30e945a9c2bb60c8da76347d56e4fb97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 80c | 19,732$15,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,771.38 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381b…4d74backed Yes | 20c | 12,966$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,372.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…30e5backed Yes | 20c | 9,458$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,561.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…cc4bbacked Yes | 20c | 9,334$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,436.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…3a12backed Yes | 40c | 7,722$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…bdb0backed Yes | 21c | 6,153$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 18c | 5,274$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.98 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 50c | 2,746$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.62 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 2,242$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.52 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 55c | 2,152$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.35 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 78c | 1,975$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.99 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Yes | 21c | 1,905$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 55c | 1,821$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.62 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked No | 78c | 1,260$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 50c | 1,084$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 78c | 887.99$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed No | 42c | 722.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Yes | 20c | 666$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.58 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…7c29backed Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Yes | 71c | 600$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed Yes | 27c | 518.03$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed No | 79c | 506.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…f003backed Yes | 21c | 493.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…13f5backed No | 77c | 452.88$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed No | 77c | 432.99$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.34 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 26c | 340.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed No | 80c | 331.84$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 57c | 307$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…6815backed Yes | 21c | 262$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 247.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 233.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.2 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd252…4058backed Yes | 25c | 208$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked No | 77c | 203$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…7a30backed No | 80c | 149.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…7164backed Yes | 71c | 123$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Yes | 20c | 122.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Yes | 27c | 103.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 72c | 103.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83a…e7febacked Yes | 26c | 103.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…d67bbacked No | 77c | 97.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked Yes | 21c | 59.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 77c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked No | 79c | 54.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f9…777bbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked No | 80c | 30.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…f56fbacked Yes | 47c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff08…ea31backed No | 80c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed No | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed No | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)Gregory Rodrigues won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.