UFC · resolved market
Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf47902aef5eff4553d1ec601c4d42dee8382c6565c17dba36d44ac521bba7d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 72c | 783.11$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Yes | 30c | 456.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 70c | 399.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 70c | 396.7$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Yes | 29c | 318.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 307.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…7967backed Yes | 29c | 223.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 193.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…c4eebacked No | 69c | 176.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 72c | 164.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…5e18backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd051…53e1backed No | 68c | 65.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 45c | 37.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…d0f9backed No | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked No | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)Gregory Rodrigues won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.