Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs FlyQuest RED (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dd818bc00bc3cf5f7e1be457fa577a0d6c286ba94c6d5e65b1eddda217d69b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuest REDof Shopify Rebellion Gold, FlyQuest RED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 66c | 4,056$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 66c | 3,007$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed FlyQuest RED | 35c | 2,766$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.57 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…f26cbacked FlyQuest RED | 33c | 1,941$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 67c | 1,100$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked FlyQuest RED | 31c | 844.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked FlyQuest RED | 32c | 773.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed FlyQuest RED | 38c | 638.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…3aeebacked FlyQuest RED | 28c | 342.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed FlyQuest RED | 38c | 332.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed FlyQuest RED | 31c | 230$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 78c | 133.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed FlyQuest RED | 22c | 64.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 66c | 60.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed FlyQuest RED | 24c | 58.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked FlyQuest RED | 35c | 30.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4ea6backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…36a6backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs FlyQuest RED (+1.5)this page
- Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Gold won
- Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Gold won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.