NBA · resolved market
Will Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matchup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8dc0b5d54bde4f9f871f91c60c8673aa0022c7d322ca2a8bc2ed611941b4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 443.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…97f8backed Yes | 60c | 299.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 39c | 228.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Yes | 62c | 225.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 52c | 173.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 38c | 132.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 116.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 112$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 25c | 84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Yes | 62c | 81.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked No | 51c | 80.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 36c | 49.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Yes | 74c | 32.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 58c | 29.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 70c | 23.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…fd9abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matchup?this page
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers be the 2026 NBA Finals matchup?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matchup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.