Music · resolved market
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e6c15f41c52efc6b9c003f96f23437b6ad5f0ca93407d467b49383cd20d2b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 2c | 7,566$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 12c | 2,487$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 1,225$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 35c | 1,182$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.77 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 19c | 997.59$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 56c | 927.7$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 927.28$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 36c | 664.35$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 12c | 655.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 556.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 531.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 11c | 480.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 421.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 359.33$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 7c | 245.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 11c | 207.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 31c | 205.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 177.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 15c | 172.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 164.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 18c | 154.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 12c | 129.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked No | 75c | 112.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf1…b72dbacked Yes | 41c | 110.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 110.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 106.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 24c | 92.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 70c | 90.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 84.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 25c | 77.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes | 25c | 76.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 14c | 75.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb093…993dbacked Yes | 46c | 73.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 14c | 72.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 37c | 48.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…ab3bbacked Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868c…265dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…00aabacked Yes | 38c | 42.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 60c | 36.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Yes | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed No | 70c | 26.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?this page
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 1 week?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 2 weeks?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.