Music · resolved market
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e2751b90f4a3e878242df8c26f7243782c5b7b01e3006c92c17874635b95bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 849$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 436.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 420.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 387.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 371.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 5c | 339.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 315.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 260.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 8c | 257.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 41c | 252.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 224$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…33d4backed Yes | 11c | 131.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…2047backed Yes | 12c | 124.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4d…cbddbacked Yes | 37c | 103.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 42c | 98.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 58c | 92.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…5e49backed Yes | 32c | 90.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 90.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 26c | 81.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes | 24c | 59.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 49.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 37c | 46.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…cfacbacked No | 72c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed No | 60c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa438…8605backed No | 67c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks?this page
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 1 week?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 2 weeks?No won
- Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.