La Liga · resolved market
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33035d6b676b4331ac595307ccfa05e050a2b14b8f65c85e78aa8cace0341ee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 55c | 1,096$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.52 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 56c | 968.64$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 45c | 732.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9a…8990backed Yes | 45c | 661.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 55c | 632.56$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.3 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…c8cabacked Yes | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 56c | 430.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…a3a6backed Yes | 44c | 337.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 57c | 264.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 44c | 241.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…abd9backed Yes | 45c | 216.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 55c | 203.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…c7b4backed Yes | 45c | 188.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Yes | 42c | 178.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…ba41backed No | 56c | 156.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 45c | 151.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed No | 57c | 115.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 44c | 90.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 44c | 72.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…597bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Yes | 43c | 59.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Yes | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…30e8backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…662fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…b920backed Yes | 44c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…0593backed Yes | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfd…d788backed Yes | 44c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 44c | 31.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 54c | 30.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 28.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…3df5backed Yes | 45c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…67bebacked No | 62c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Arda Guler: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.