NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb77f388a537675334db89cb6f4675ad157e201fd0f6405500dcaee5f0e5c231e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 47c | 184,903$86,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,118.27 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 54c | 79,851$43,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,616.58 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 53c | 51,823$27,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,356.67 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 49,246$26,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,117.58 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 44c | 13,941$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,170.65 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 9,266$4,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.72 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 56c | 9,032$5,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.35 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 2,997$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.58 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,514$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 2,338$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.93 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 2,086$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.67 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Under | 43c | 2,018$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.54 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 55c | 1,947$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.43 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 57c | 1,555$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.65 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 1,553$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 55c | 1,168$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.69 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 977.5$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.39 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 972$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.18 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 769.06$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 55c | 764.59$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.68 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 763.47$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 54c | 653.79$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.74 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 54c | 577.39$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 56c | 553.94$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.73 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 43c | 528$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 57c | 522$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.46 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 54c | 444.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 8c | 320.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…b2aebacked Under | 41c | 302.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 53c | 283$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 10c | 274.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 55c | 270$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 38c | 216.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 74c | 184.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Under | 44c | 168.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 152.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 71c | 143.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 72c | 141.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 43c | 128.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…fcd4backed Under | 11c | 122.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Over | 55c | 107.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 47c | 106.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 57c | 106.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 24c | 92.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 65c | 86.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…483fbacked Under | 35c | 76.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 57c | 74.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Under | 46c | 71.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Under | 17c | 69.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 52c | 54.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Under | 46c | 53.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 57c | 49.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 74c | 43.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0158…75a5backed Under | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0d…7822backed Under | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed Over | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 54c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 56c | 31.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Over | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…ba24backed Under | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…8a29backed Under | 47c | 21.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Over | 66c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Over | 55c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 76c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.