NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20247bdbbed56d5de83f68bcb5aecd127651adcf5c229fbbd1d3b705f27a750b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Senators, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Panthers | 61c | 9,987$6,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,894.83 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Senators | 39c | 4,067$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.94 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Senators | 39c | 1,482$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.04 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Senators | 39c | 789.02$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.72 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Senators | 39c | 741.08$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.02 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Senators | 39c | 697.12$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.79 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Senators | 39c | 499.04$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Senators | 39c | 425.86$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.09 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Panthers | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Panthers | 69c | 343.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Senators | 39c | 333.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…86b3backed Senators | 39c | 234.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Panthers | 77c | 213.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Senators | 5c | 209.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Senators | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Panthers | 60c | 160.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Senators | 40c | 159.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Senators | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Senators | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…552cbacked Senators | 39c | 110.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Senators | 26c | 108.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Senators | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Panthers | 61c | 78.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Senators | 26c | 76.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Senators | 39c | 75.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Senators | 39c | 65.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Panthers | 62c | 63.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Panthers | 69c | 60.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Senators | 39c | 59.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Panthers | 77c | 55.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Senators | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Panthers | 61c | 48.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Senators | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Senators | 39c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Panthers | 76c | 30.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Panthers | 77c | 30.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Senators | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.