NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b4a307d89dbda3a5dcfb8b994b1365a6d4a82ae2079575120872bfeffe2b5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008d…b839backed Toronto Marlies | 64c | 548.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.27 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 335.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 288.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.36 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Marlies | 38c | 171.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 35c | 154.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 54c | 98.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 97.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…ca4fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 84.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 72.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 47.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 38c | 44.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Marlies | 37c | 43.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 42.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 45c | 36.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 36.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 52c | 31.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Toronto Marlies | 41c | 27.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…4eadbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…b11cbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Toronto Marlies | 48c | 26.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…29ebbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d9…1b0cbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Toronto Marlies | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Toronto Marlies | 56c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.