Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde622f62c53f06fd1ee38baaccad749805919fe7984a229c0595b384582fe1ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 1,151$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.78 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 22c | 560.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.52 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 67c | 349.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…cd3bbacked Yes | 11c | 281.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 54c | 220.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 52c | 192.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 78c | 157.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 155$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd2…d24bbacked Yes | 76c | 144.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 143.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 9c | 142.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 37c | 107$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 53c | 82.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…a44bbacked Yes | 80c | 65.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 48c | 64.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed No | 24c | 51.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 36.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…0b19backed Yes | 77c | 32.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 26.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 20.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 6?this page
- Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 6?Yes won
- Will "Ran To Atlanta - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.