Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$215 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bbd6610fed373f8e73d446be00aa68a73c4c80880eb07788f5963fd0971a072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c27…3682backed Yes | 34c | 799.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 68c | 637.05$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 19c | 248$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 20c | 176.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…4652backed No | 78c | 139.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 29c | 134.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 80.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…0b8fbacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 58c | 39.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed No | 39c | 25.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 23.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 22.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…a0c7backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$215 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $220-$225 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of the week of May 18 – May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.