Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61d7dc98dbcd7cd351c20b149c3966fbd82bd1421463f11a49c2aad279b16fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6def…7096backed No | 2c | 4,261$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 2c | 982.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 14c | 959.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 2c | 947.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 2c | 672.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 619.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 339.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 292.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 9c | 216$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 5c | 211.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 57c | 195.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 52c | 150.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 70.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed No | 15c | 69.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…155ebacked Yes | 76c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…f622backed No | 48c | 32.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in June?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in June?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.