Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7278221c82a892056250c1962fe445b6c1ec79c4bd956bd4b9f9a30c05e3127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd987…20b6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 495.66$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.16 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 28c | 235$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 33c | 145$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 38c | 143.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 99.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…0114backed No | 73c | 86.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…1281backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 51.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…564cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 29.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?this page
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.3%?No won
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?Yes won
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.9%?No won
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 0.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.