NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a9832199f6ca59b1fa466c0fd3cd7da708b3b22311b2be37ce2b41d557d7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 21c | 534.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 27c | 412.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 314.92$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 45c | 278$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 78c | 239.35$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 26c | 220.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 74c | 199.42$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 77c | 194.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 30c | 126.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 75c | 100.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 74c | 94.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 25c | 88.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Under | 58c | 48.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Over | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 33c | 34.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…a258backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 72c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.