NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1700680784c23f33a950b499082c9fe656d69f21905d34d115a50351a10d5b27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 56c | 2,423$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.9 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Under | 21c | 1,449$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 7c | 1,375$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 79c | 1,224$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.96 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 43c | 1,111$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.27 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 1,082$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.03 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 18c | 969.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.92 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 74c | 953.39$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 39c | 770$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 17c | 644.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.16 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 21c | 599.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.22 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 68c | 511.33$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 43c | 395.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.35 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 45c | 348.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 20c | 327.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 18c | 325.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.42 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Under | 20c | 287.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 80c | 276.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Under | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…052ebacked Over | 80c | 227$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 21c | 220.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 47c | 170.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 158.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 46c | 150.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…0fd7backed Under | 68c | 148.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 7c | 147.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 10c | 142.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 9c | 141.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…d379backed Under | 21c | 139.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 79c | 129.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 10c | 127.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…4f5dbacked Over | 26c | 121.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 49c | 118.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 19c | 89.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 20c | 83.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 63c | 83.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 20c | 83.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 79c | 80.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…60febacked Over | 68c | 79.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 63c | 78.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 64c | 70.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 80c | 68.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Under | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 57c | 34.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Under | 76c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712b…b25fbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…f325backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…4781backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.