MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610fe6de6052c84ac9beb69bd316f98b240b8d29843a11b57acde7efcea07ecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 34c | 8,630$2,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.09 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 35c | 5,508$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 66c | 5,306$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d621backed No | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.3 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 65c | 3,030$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.69 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 35c | 1,904$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.54 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 65c | 1,692$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.31 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 35c | 1,370$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…fda2backed No | 65c | 1,195$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 64c | 854$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.54 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 67c | 785.3$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.07 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 65c | 758$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 65c | 752.77$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.47 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c817backed No | 65c | 520.2$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 34c | 342.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 66c | 337.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 37c | 331$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…20f6backed No | 66c | 304.67$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 37c | 236$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 66c | 228.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 33c | 216$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 35c | 212$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 36c | 168.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed No | 65c | 152.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 35c | 134.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 34c | 93.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 34c | 59.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 35c | 47.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 66c | 47.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 38c | 41.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…1799backed Yes | 35c | 41.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…421ebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 66c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 65c | 28.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked No | 65c | 22.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 61c | 16.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.