MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39602b050ae274167a0877fe809bbbafc0b6ce51c8325236fce6af29060e20bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 8,062$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.59 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 7,234$4,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 4,067$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 3,914$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 3,142$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 2,075$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 1,670$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 1,127$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 1,005$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 14c | 920.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 805$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 715.68$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 465.26$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 390.43$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 291.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 248.76$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 228.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 212.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 212$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 146.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 145.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 145.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 144.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 136.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…7551backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 56.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 44.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 40.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 79cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 34.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 21.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.