MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0e6537ce59038f8fdb46f9c6db67a2ce9bec732c0c903ef0457ee71a831368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 3,778$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…4a1dbacked Over | 42c | 3,000$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 50c | 2,540$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.79 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 2,245$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,986$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 915.16$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 685$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 449.07$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 54c | 314.81$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 42c | 244.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 208.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Under | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Under | 41c | 71.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 62c | 68.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…1029backed Over | 50c | 62.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7636…2acbbacked Over | 71c | 25.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 62c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 62c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.