Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0248586d93eca782dc023e24a8948575ac27db8ba249b28cf0a101e3c4263aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 2c | 8,367$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 18c | 7,739$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed No | 1c | 3,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…85febacked No | 1c | 3,445$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 6c | 2,646$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed No | 1c | 1,858$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,626$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.35 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 1,363$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…cbe1backed No | 1c | 1,026$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…d448backed No | 2c | 960$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 956.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…f1efbacked No | 1c | 950$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…17e0backed No | 2c | 933.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 74c | 776.29$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 663.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…192fbacked Yes | 57c | 607.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…ffc7backed No | 15c | 593.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 64c | 532$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 3c | 515.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 70c | 494.92$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 74c | 421$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 6c | 345$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…c565backed No | 46c | 316.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 76c | 290.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 281.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked No | 71c | 269.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 18c | 260.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…d43dbacked No | 36c | 258$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…52a5backed No | 31c | 257.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 205.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 53c | 199.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2525backed Yes | 58c | 195$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 5c | 192.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1069backed Yes | 67c | 170.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed Yes | 69c | 149.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked Yes | 15c | 147.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 58c | 122.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Yes | 21c | 118.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed No | 63c | 109.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 38c | 105.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 34c | 99.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb0…04b8backed Yes | 74c | 67.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 32c | 58.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…f9bdbacked No | 78c | 53.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…518bbacked Yes | 64c | 53.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 21c | 50.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…ebeebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 25.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 61c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…bc10backed Yes | 70c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.