Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x337f46c571cdf4b891a7faed065a053fcf012481189a7dd7ebad20777e05a4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc55f…2d80backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…21bdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,125$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…85febacked Yes | 0c | 3,537$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…144cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,184$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…daa5backed Yes | 5c | 2,809$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 1c | 2,568$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cc19backed Yes | 4c | 2,471$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…3ab8backed Yes | 4c | 2,399$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…b810backed Yes | 5c | 2,336$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…ef80backed Yes | 5c | 1,938$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9462…1f7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,809$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…0640backed Yes | 4c | 1,780$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…19d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…1e7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,661$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacab…0db0backed Yes | 1c | 1,613$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…adbbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…8e61backed Yes | 4c | 1,524$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…3855backed Yes | 4c | 1,438$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…c58bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,425$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…54e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,411$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d4c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,406$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f426backed Yes | 4c | 1,381$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,296$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…22ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,289$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…f352backed Yes | 5c | 1,273$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…7debbacked Yes | 4c | 1,245$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…00c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…b1b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,174$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcd…167dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…13cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…1a00backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…0218backed Yes | 4c | 1,089$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…cb0cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…5341backed Yes | 4c | 1,080$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf8…9bd5backed Yes | 4c | 1,076$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,075$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6230backed Yes | 5c | 1,045$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…ed1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,043$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…9e14backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…c6c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,018$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…d96dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea46…3f09backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes | 4c | 895$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 892.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…34d2backed Yes | 5c | 799$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…ced2backed Yes | 5c | 788$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…be0abacked Yes | 4c | 778$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 766.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…7877backed Yes | 4c | 731$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 691.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…6864backed Yes | 4c | 562$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…87b2backed Yes | 4c | 547$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…1754backed Yes | 5c | 476$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 4c | 472.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…923cbacked Yes | 5c | 412$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 322.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 17c | 300.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 16c | 245.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 20c | 180.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 158.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 8c | 135.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…a174backed Yes | 16c | 131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked Yes | 20c | 112.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 79c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 90.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf44c…dbc7backed Yes | 23c | 86.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 38.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 29.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Yes won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.