Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951fda6a6baf97f16d903534095b84dfb20ea35cdd9a35e6854f18f47d6ec69a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $289,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…2d80backed Yes | 2c | 8,281$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…85febacked Yes | 0c | 3,989$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…2966backed Yes | 3c | 2,792$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,595$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3254…5219backed Yes | 3c | 2,464$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…09abbacked Yes | 3c | 2,463$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,149$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…60a4backed Yes | 3c | 2,085$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be8…d401backed Yes | 3c | 2,035$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…2bd5backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…5430backed Yes | 3c | 1,823$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083a…a253backed Yes | 1c | 1,642$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034c…f019backed Yes | 1c | 1,582$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…5d73backed Yes | 3c | 1,582$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…6032backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…39aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…53c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3b30backed Yes | 3c | 1,228$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…a340backed Yes | 3c | 1,179$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…0a80backed Yes | 3c | 1,109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…c884backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…e82dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,070$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…572fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,067$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…5f55backed Yes | 3c | 952$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8625…de59backed Yes | 3c | 907$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…bf8fbacked Yes | 3c | 899$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…af5dbacked Yes | 2c | 893.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 820.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…eff5backed Yes | 3c | 817$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…8aacbacked Yes | 3c | 812$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…435ebacked Yes | 2c | 802$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…caeabacked Yes | 3c | 773$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…74efbacked Yes | 2c | 719$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…34d2backed Yes | 2c | 707$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…7ffdbacked Yes | 2c | 701$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Yes | 3c | 675$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 639$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8db1backed Yes | 2c | 626$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…315abacked Yes | 2c | 617$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…9debbacked Yes | 2c | 615$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 591.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…57e8backed Yes | 2c | 572$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…3949backed Yes | 2c | 564$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…eb76backed Yes | 2c | 545$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 537.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 503.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…aa8abacked Yes | 2c | 482$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…eb0fbacked Yes | 2c | 477$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa155…3414backed Yes | 2c | 466$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 4c | 458.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…429abacked Yes | 2c | 454$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.