Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5873d428fae26da112e433852b6bd555ec85028b9f3c493df99c9f831eaa3c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 362.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 309.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 49c | 208.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 167.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 46c | 156.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 155.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 120.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 117.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 107.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 53c | 100.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 14c | 94.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 53c | 88.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 82.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 46c | 80.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 67.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 77c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 64.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 78c | 64.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 75c | 56.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 54.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 50.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 38c | 45.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 43.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 34c | 42.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 53c | 40.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 36c | 34.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…8eddbacked No | 41c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 27.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 46c | 25.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 45c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 55c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 65c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.