Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d11749150840523ee32833d1d33348736cb05cf06de0e6b431b2baad7364de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 32c | 723.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.39 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 60c | 620.31$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 472.61$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 33c | 321.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 255.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 229.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 215.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 215$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 46c | 214$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 173.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 162$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 146.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 145.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 24c | 143$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 140.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 17c | 123.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 34c | 114.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 38c | 111.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 108.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 101.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 95.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 91.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 31c | 89.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 72c | 86.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 86.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 78.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 76.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 52c | 67.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 30c | 66.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 61.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 66c | 54.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 54.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 38.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 38.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 58c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 57c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 33.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked No | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 30.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 50c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 60c | 26.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 25.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.