Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda989de25c9fd1a5556a897b87646d1ce9a9654eeeafa3aa498df87b4985ce3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 791.16$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 39c | 506.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.2 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 393$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 358.56$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 340.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 333.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 319.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 11c | 317.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 69c | 293.21$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 263.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 73c | 219.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 73c | 205.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 203.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 198.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 184.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 174.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 165.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 156.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 153.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 142.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 138.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 23c | 137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 136.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 128.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 123.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 48c | 122.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 114$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 107.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 99.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 94.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 22c | 91.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 86.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 85.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 82.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 45c | 81.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 79.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 70.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 67.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 64.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 59.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 24c | 57.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 40c | 57.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 39c | 55.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 52.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 45.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 80c | 43.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 41c | 42.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 41.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…eb8cbacked No | 58c | 37.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…abb3backed Yes | 38c | 36.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 36.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f9…5154backed No | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 73c | 35.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 62c | 34.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…9651backed No | 63c | 34.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…9b28backed No | 63c | 32.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 31.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 30.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…5290backed Yes | 38c | 29.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 38c | 28.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 69c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 40c | 26.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 61c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 57c | 22.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…1dd9backed No | 58c | 21.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…2e8bbacked Yes | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.