Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d35f9c30a75ccbe06d53bb7f60de3ffdd5dfb9a692c055bc09f3ec1f06af39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 1,131$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.5 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 658.21$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.53 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 532.59$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 522.74$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 459.4$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 405.53$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 36c | 304.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.47 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 300.58$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 36c | 276.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 273.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 262.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 254.43$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 38c | 234.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 231.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 212.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 206.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 206.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.78 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 38c | 182.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…b5b2backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 66c | 177.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 169.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 31c | 154.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 154.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 67c | 133.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 124.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 119.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 119.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 32c | 117$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 116$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 76c | 114.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 35c | 109.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 57c | 104.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 26c | 104.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 101.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 17c | 95.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 92.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 90.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 88.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 88.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 59c | 86.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 84.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 31c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 77.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 18c | 74.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 71.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 71.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 69.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 43c | 69.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 59c | 64.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 63.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 63.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 31c | 61.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 61.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 33c | 58.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 57.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 42c | 55.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 69c | 54.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 48.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 47.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 39c | 46.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 46.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 28c | 45.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 32c | 45.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 40.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 38.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 38.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 37.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 34.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 63c | 33.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 68c | 32.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.