Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec0d4a7bbb04f6a35b72db07f99639db0b926f7cf39b5fa153381909f33ea47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 55c | 524.87$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 340.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 45c | 281.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 269.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 45c | 251.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 243.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 203.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 190.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 39c | 169.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 53c | 168.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 55c | 165.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 59c | 162.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 56c | 155.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 148.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 77c | 147.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 61c | 143.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 75c | 140.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 139.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 137.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 128.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 61c | 106.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 49c | 103$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 98.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 53c | 97.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 41c | 95.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 93.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 92.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 89.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 88.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 87.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 87.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 86.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 61c | 81.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 77.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 71.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 70c | 71.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 70.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 69.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 74c | 69.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 65.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 61.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 59.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 61c | 58.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 56.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 54.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 54c | 53.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 52.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 28c | 52.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 50.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 60c | 49.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 49.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 48.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked No | 38c | 48.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 47.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 57c | 46.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 45.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 44.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 44.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 42.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 41.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 68c | 41.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 41.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 44c | 41.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 27c | 40.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 53c | 40.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 39.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 38.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 44c | 35.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…7a78backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 59c | 33.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…b907backed No | 48c | 33.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 52c | 32.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 78c | 32.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 29.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 46c | 25.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 45c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.