Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc12570669c45090ed94e986621c26a99ccb69496f8b8fdcdfe2ebbdf13f4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 24c | 2,280$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.94 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,404$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 777.38$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 683.66$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 590.03$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 584.75$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 500.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 469.73$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 445.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 431.01$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 401.49$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 75c | 386$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 77c | 341.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 73c | 316.35$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 286.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 257.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 18c | 235.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 33c | 230.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 28c | 219.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 216.15$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 203.83$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 77c | 202.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 199.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 186.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 65c | 181.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 24c | 180.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 27c | 168.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 162.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 24c | 161$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 31c | 156.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 150.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 37c | 147.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 16c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 146.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 23c | 140.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…7c92backed Yes | 29c | 139.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 79c | 133.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 133.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 129.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 128.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 115.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 17c | 112.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 112.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 73c | 112.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 27c | 109.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 100.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 100.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 80c | 96.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 93.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 92.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 87.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 31c | 84.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 31c | 82.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 22c | 80.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 23c | 78.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 75.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 70.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 65.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 18c | 65.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 64.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…535cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 21c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 58.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 56.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 54.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 54.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 78c | 51.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 47.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 46.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 65c | 45.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 23c | 44.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 76c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked No | 76c | 38.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 28.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.