Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a36aaab7f3b0ab6314dbfb916c6cc24edd74373875afd67a8867b27152584f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 724.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 595.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 560.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 417.71$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 375.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 273.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 267.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 259.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb1…a2bbbacked Yes | 7c | 251.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 249.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 7c | 229.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 221.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 190.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 21c | 189.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 18c | 189$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 185.45$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 159.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 78c | 155.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 29c | 149.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 15c | 145.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 18c | 136.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 9c | 133.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 19c | 130.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 108.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 101.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 24c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 25c | 89.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 20c | 81.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 72.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 62.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 19c | 57.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 57.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 73c | 46.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 39.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 80c | 27.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.