Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3df78d95d263c4ad14795df9db995b24488bdf185fc3ce24f6032fcb9fc1ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 28c | 2,889$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.68 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 1,163$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 50c | 947.12$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.06 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 789.55$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 74c | 570.11$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.11 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 506.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 4c | 490.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 417$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.05 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 374.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 10c | 359.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 80c | 339.43$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 317.22$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 307.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 63c | 268.54$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 260.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 225.27$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.19 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 216.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 79c | 213.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 203.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 203$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 181.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 176.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 40c | 175.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 171.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 165.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 155.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 147.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 134.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 124.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 10c | 124.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 122.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 122.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 116.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 115.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 29c | 114.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 66c | 114.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 112.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 111.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 109.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 60c | 107$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 104.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 27c | 100.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 97.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 88.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 87.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 23c | 84.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 83.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 78.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 76.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 74c | 73.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 28c | 70.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 69.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 66.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 63.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 61.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 59.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 59.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 74c | 59.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 28c | 57.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 32c | 56.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 48c | 56.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 70c | 55.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 27c | 55.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 69c | 54.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 54.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 78c | 54.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 51.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 45c | 48.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 29c | 47.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 65c | 46.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 75c | 41.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 32.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 75c | 31.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 39c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked No | 75c | 20.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.