Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff8fbaad2841af7f98c7f764b7c52f5247209ee86e8a560a66b903d7912d813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 2c | 3,149$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 20c | 680.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 440.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Yes | 34c | 426.05$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 375.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 358.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 18c | 288.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 24c | 238.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 29c | 207.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 184.31$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 183.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 17c | 182.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 167.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 162.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 155.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 21c | 151.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 22c | 145.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 144.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 142.36$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 140.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 19c | 134.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 134.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 119.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 18c | 117.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 115.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 114.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 112.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 22c | 92.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 91.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 22c | 80.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 75.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 71.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 71.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 70.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 70.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 18c | 63.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 21c | 62.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 59.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 80c | 58.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 26c | 58.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 32c | 42.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 40.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 31.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…1a80backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 29.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…70fabacked No | 74c | 23.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…b41abacked No | 70c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 75c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.