Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x010b05f1f10a582545125f413ffc386df40b193e9821e0b9d0b896bf7bdc2c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 1,061$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 892.42$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 26c | 343.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 301$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 214$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 24c | 174$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…eb53backed Yes | 24c | 155$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 137.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 8c | 135.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 118.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 116.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 113.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 26c | 110.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 85.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 64.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 62.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 28c | 55.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 74c | 53.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 35c | 35.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 38c | 34.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 77c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.