Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd014ad4e86df0c3e6a5b17abce1b8921f9154464db17a47d410c2c15179cbd3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 1c | 4,088$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 231.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 73c | 223.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 25c | 197.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 107.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 97.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 67.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 63.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 40c | 48.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 35c | 42.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 73c | 39.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 38.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…bb66backed No | 75c | 36.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0a…2a12backed No | 74c | 27.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 66c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 78c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 70c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…1dd9backed No | 73c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed No | 80c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…e1ebbacked No | 72c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 68c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.