World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f5a6bd9ef6b7a05489a07f1fbff4cf05a54b1fe12e1c93c0b1b832c41458b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 665.85$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.66 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 275.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.43 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 267.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 72c | 226.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 35c | 199.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 28c | 186.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 159.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 40c | 157.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 143.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 20c | 141.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 116$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 63c | 113.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 107.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 27c | 106.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 73c | 104.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 98.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 56c | 98.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 77c | 79.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 77.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 70.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 37c | 67.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 63.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 62.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 36c | 61.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 58.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 57.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 56.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 55.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 55.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 27c | 53.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 38c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 65c | 52.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 43.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 27c | 43.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 42.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 39.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…0220backed No | 37c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 30.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 70c | 28.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 72c | 25.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…9eefbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 65c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.