World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81858ca4519005a70f0ee0f79d0482d5ce185bc7956ecbfcdaf590b5e9d74df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 679.58$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.88 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 265.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.51 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 141.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 134$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 125.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 40c | 124.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 122.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 37c | 97.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 96.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 81.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 81.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 79.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 43c | 70.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 65.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 17c | 64.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 63.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 27c | 63.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 62.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 57.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 34c | 56.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 54.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 22c | 52.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 49.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 41c | 44.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 33.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 66c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 25.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 23.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…494cbacked No | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.