World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8c13184f4e070c7887c1d1c95087bcb98d912d629287889fbdae8861cbc06c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,415$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 328.33$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 272$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 260.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 46c | 236.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 57c | 204$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 173.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 57c | 172$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 107.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 100.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 94.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 47c | 77.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 76.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 30c | 69.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 65.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 44c | 63.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 61.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 55c | 60.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 57.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…d007backed No | 75c | 49.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 47c | 48.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 47.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 50c | 46.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 53c | 45.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 54c | 45.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 49c | 43.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 49c | 20.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 58c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.